MTI sees GDP growth forcast in 2019 and 2020

Singapore’s economy is expected to have a growth of “0.5 to 2.5%” in 2020.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) expects that the Singapore economy to grow by 0.5 to 1.0% this year and by 0.5 to 2.5%” in 2020, according to a report released on Thursday (Nov 21). 

The country’s economy rose by 0.5% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in Q3, which is a bit higher than the 0.2% growth recorded in the previous quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy grew by 2.1%, a turnaround from the 2.7% contraction in the second quarter.

Considering the performance of Singapore’s economy in the first three quarters of 2019 and the outlook for the coming fourth quarter, MTI narrowed its GDP growth forecast to “0.5 to 1.0 per cent”, from “0.0 to 1.0 per cent”.

The construction sector grew by 2.9% YoY, after the 2.8% expansion in the preceding quarter, supported by private and public sector construction works. On a QoQ seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, it dropped marginally by 0.1%.

On the other hand, the manufacturing sector fell 1.7% YoY – a moderation from the 3.3% decline in the preceding quarter. On a QoQ seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, it grew by 7.6%.

The wholesale & retail trade sector narrowed by 3.3% YoY, extending the 3.5% drop in the second quarter. It dropped by 1.7% on a QoQ seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, compared to a 9.2% contraction in the previous quarter.

Flat growth was recorded by the transportation & storage sector, slowing down from the 2.4% expansion recorded in the previous quarter. It shrank by 5.8% on a QoQ seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, compared to the 6.5% growth in the second quarter.

Growth for the information & communications sector stood at 3.4% YoY, moderating from the previous quarter’s 4.1% expansion. On a QoQ seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, it rose by 3% compared to the 1.3% growth in the preceding quarter.

For the accommodation & food services sector, it posted a 2% YoY growth, higher than the 1.2% reached in the previous quarter. The sector saw a 6.2% growth on a QoQ seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, as compared to 2.7% in the second quarter.

The business sector’s growth stood at 0.9% YoY, slightly higher than the 0.8% posted in the second quarter. On a QoQ seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, it rose by 3.2%, a positive change from the 1.6% contraction in the previous quarter.

The finance & insurance sector recorded a growth of 4.3% YoY, prolonging the 5.1% growth of the second quarter. It contracted by 0.5% on a QoQ seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, after recording a 7.5% growth in the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, the “other services industries” had a 2.8% growth YoY, extending the growth of 2.7% in the preceding quarter. The sector grew by 3.4% on a QoQ seasonally adjusted annualised basis, a turnaround from the 5.5% contraction of the previous quarter.

For the year 2020, global growth is expected to have a modest pickup, on the back of an improvement in the growth outlook for developing economies and emerging markets.

However, growth in several of the country’s important final demand markets such as the China and US is expected to ease.

The GDP growth of the US is expected to moderate in 2020 as investment growth is seen to continue to slow down amidst policy uncertainty and trade tensions. China’s growth, on the other hand, is expected to slow down in the coming year as investment growth is seen to decelerate following financial reforms to halt shadow lending.

On balance, with the growth outlook for the country’s key final demand markets and the expected recovery in global electronics cycle in the coming year, MTI projected growth in the country’s economy to pick up in moderation in 2020, compared to 2019.

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Victor Kang, Digital Content Specialist at PropertyGuru, edited this story. To contact him about this or other stories, email victorkang@propertyguru.com.sg

This post was originally posted on Property Guru Property Market News Section